Thursday, January 04, 2007
Happy New Year
Much of what happens in history", [Taleb] notes, "comes from 'Black Swan dynamics', very large, sudden, and totally unpredictable 'outliers', while much of what we usually talk about is almost pure noise. Our track record in predicting those events is dismal; yet by some mechanism called the hindsight bias we think that we understand them. We have a bad habit of finding 'laws' in history (by fitting stories to events and detecting false patterns); we are drivers looking through the rear view mirror while convinced we are looking ahead"
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3 comments:
lovely and very true..i think I do that..looking into the rear view mirror when I think iam looking ahead...but I dont think Iam because I have mostly never let go of the past ..
what do you think
it is not so much the looking into the rear view mirror that bothers me ( you gotta use all the information you have, and past is the only data you possess), but the taking the extrapolation of past as future and touting predictions as reality that bother me... it is not accurate ... it is a guess with less that 50% probability.. so treat it as such :)
:) somebody says..."the best indicator of your future behavior is your past behavior" I dont beleive in that a 100% but that past data bothers me sommtimes :)
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